The data breaches of 2014 have yet to fade into memory, and we already have 2015 looming. Experian's 2015 Data Breach Industry Forecast gives us much to anticipate, and I've asked security experts to weigh in with their thoughts for the coming year as well.
Experian highlights a number of key factors that will drive or contribute to data breaches in 2015. A few of them aren't surprising: Organizations are focusing too much on external attacks when insiders are a significantly bigger threat, and attackers are likely to go after cloud-based services and data. A few new factors, however, merit your attention.
First, there is a looming deadline of October, 2015 for retailers to upgrade to point-of-sale systems capable of processing chip-and-PIN credit cards. As banks and credit card issuers adopt more secure chip-and-PIN cards, and more consumers have them in hand, it will be significantly more difficult to clone cards or perpetrate credit card fraud. That's why Experian expects cybercriminals to increase the volume of attacks early in 2015, to compromise as much as possible while they still can.
The third thing that stands out in the Experian report is an increased focus on healthcare breaches. Electronic medical records, and the explosion of health or fitness-related wearable devices make sensitive personal health information more vulnerable than ever to being compromised or exposed.
The risk of health related data being breached is also a concern voiced by Ken Westin, security analyst with Tripwire. He pointed out that part of the reason that retail breaches have escalated is because cybercriminals have developed the technologies and market for monetizing that data. "The bad news is that other industries can easily become targets once a market develops for the type of data they have. I am particularly concerned about health insurance fraud--it's driving increasing demand for health care records and most healthcare organizations are not prepared for the level of sophistication and persistence we have seen from attackers in the retail segment."
"There will absolutely be more breaches in 2015--possibly even more than we saw in 2014 due to the booming underground market for hackers and cybercriminals around both credit card data and identity theft," warned Kevin Routhier, founder and CEO of Coretelligent. "This growing market, coupled with readily available and productized rootkits, malware and other tools will continue to drive more data breaches in the coming years as this is a lucrative practice for enterprising criminals."
The rise in data breach headlines, however, may not necessarily suggest an increase in actual data breaches. It's possible that organizations are just getting better at discovering that they've been breached, so it gets more attention than it would have in previous years.
Tim Erlin, director of IT risk and security strategy for Tripwire, echoed that sentiment. "The plethora of announced breaches in the news this year is, by definition, a trailing indicator of actual breach activity. You can only discover breaches that have happened, and there's no indication that we're at the end of the road with existing breach activity. Because we expect organizations to improve their ability to detect the breaches, we'll see the pattern of announcements continue through 2015."
The combination of a rise in actual data breach attacks, and an increase in the ability to discover them will make 2015 a busy year for data breaches. Whether we're defending against new attacks, or just detecting existing breaches that have already compromised organizations, there will be no shortage of data breach headlines in 2015.